Show-Me State Times

The Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF) at the University of Missouri has published its Spring 2025 Missouri Farm Income Outlook, projecting a recovery in net farm income for the state after two years of decline. The publication offers projections on key financial indicators, such as cash receipts, production data, and government payments, to estimate Missouri's net farm income.

The report indicates a projected net farm income of $4.69 billion in 2025, representing a 9% increase from 2024. This improvement is attributed to a significant boost in direct government payments from the American Relief Act of 2025. "Government payments of $1.3 billion are projected to more than offset declines in crop receipts and inventories, and to generate profits in an otherwise unprofitable environment," states the report.

According to the document, crop receipts are anticipated to decrease by $355 million, influenced by lower corn prices and a reduction in soybean acreage. Corn and soybeans together make up 81% of total crop receipts. Meanwhile, Missouri's cattle inventory has steadied at 3.95 million head, with an expectation that cattle receipts will remain at $3.1 billion due to higher prices compensating for lower marketings. The hog inventory increased by 11% to 3.45 million head, maintaining hog receipts at $1.07 billion.

A notable finding is the 2% estimated decline in total production expenses for 2025, despite a 7% increase in purchased livestock expenses. This decline is attributed to reduced costs for pesticides, feed, and fuel.

The report also anticipates that Missouri's net farm income will contract again in 2026. Alejandro Plastina, director of RaFF, commented, "Government payments in 2025 will boost net farm income to levels that should allow most producers to cover expenses and accumulate some cash." He warned, however, that these payments are unlikely to be repeated, and expressed concerns about future income levels without similar support. "It will be critical for farmers and ranchers to take actionable steps to secure sufficient liquidity to operate in 2026 with much tighter margins. MU Extension provides plenty of resources to help with the planning process."

Missouri’s Farm Income Outlook is part of a series of state-level reports produced by RaFF in cooperation with land-grant institutions in other states, including Arkansas, Kansas, and Nebraska.